2025-01-01 → 2025-09-30 (train, 9 мес),
OOS = 2025-10-01 → 2026-04-07 (test, 6+ мес) — forward-looking split.TP=SL ≥ 2.5:2.5; асимметрия — TP ≥ 2.5.WR ≥ 50% (психологический минимум); асимметрия — WR ≥ 1/(1+ratio) + 10pp (статистический edge над breakeven).min(IS,OOS)/max(IS,OOS) ≥ 0.5 — edge не должен схлопываться между периодами.[0.0, 1.5), [1.5, 3.0), [3.0, 7.0), [7.0, ∞) — каждый bucket фильтрует триггеры по силе в диапазоне [min ≤ strength < max) и валидируется независимо. Cell (direction × TP × SL) может пройти в нескольких buckets одновременно — каждый bucket даёт отдельную строку в таблице. Это ловит non-monotonic кривые (например U-shape), которые cumulative-фильтр strength ≥ X пропускает. N на bucket: ≥ 50 в IS и OOS (строже, чем 30 в cumulative-режиме — узкий фильтр = тоньше sample).contra.
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 25 bars | [1.5, 3.0) | +0.249R | 61.8% | 51 | 33.3% | +0.310R | 59.0% | 50 | 22.0% | -0.280 | ℹ small N: IS=51 / OOS=50 — статистика на грани порога N≥50 per bucket |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 25 bars | [0.0, ∞) | +0.368R | 59.5% | 128 | 30.5% | +0.192R | 55.2% | 87 | 33.3% | -0.280 | restored from v5: validated combo missed v6 strength-bucket criteria (N<50 per bucket) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.088R | 51.9% | 4938 | 17.1% | +0.064R | 51.5% | 3408 | 20.8% | -0.076 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.064R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.5% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.116R | 52.2% | 4938 | 26.4% | +0.068R | 51.5% | 3408 | 30.5% | -0.092 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.068R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.5% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.069R | 50.9% | 4931 | 41.2% | +0.121R | 51.4% | 3575 | 43.9% | -0.095 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.4% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.060R | 51.0% | 3547 | 24.6% | +0.105R | 52.1% | 2452 | 28.9% | -0.082 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.119R | 52.1% | 3547 | 34.9% | +0.079R | 51.2% | 2452 | 37.9% | -0.099 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.2% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.141R | 53.8% | 3530 | 35.2% | +0.090R | 52.0% | 2190 | 38.0% | -0.116 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.092R | 51.9% | 4055 | 12.2% | +0.059R | 51.0% | 2703 | 14.5% | -0.075 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.059R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.0% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.103R | 51.8% | 4055 | 20.7% | +0.076R | 51.0% | 2703 | 22.7% | -0.089 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.0% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.117R | 51.7% | 4055 | 28.7% | +0.090R | 51.1% | 2703 | 31.5% | -0.103 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.1% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.084R | 51.8% | 6446 | 15.0% | +0.065R | 51.3% | 4127 | 17.9% | -0.074 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.065R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.3% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.084R | 51.5% | 6446 | 23.6% | +0.069R | 51.3% | 4127 | 26.6% | -0.076 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.069R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.3% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.113R | 51.8% | 6446 | 33.1% | +0.066R | 51.1% | 4127 | 34.8% | -0.089 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.066R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.1% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.121R | 51.6% | 6446 | 41.3% | +0.069R | 50.7% | 4127 | 42.9% | -0.095 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.069R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 50.7% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.143R | 50.5% | 162 | 37.6% | +0.151R | 52.4% | 99 | 36.4% | -0.147 | ℹ small N: IS=162 / OOS=99 — статистика на грани порога N≥50 per bucket |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.477R | 55.6% | 162 | 38.9% | +0.392R | 57.4% | 99 | 45.5% | -0.435 | ℹ small N: IS=162 / OOS=99 — статистика на грани порога N≥50 per bucket |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.066R | 51.4% | 1136 | 26.6% | +0.085R | 53.0% | 841 | 34.7% | -0.075 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.130R | 53.0% | 807 | 15.9% | +0.099R | 52.8% | 619 | 21.6% | -0.114 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 25 bars | [1.5, 3.0) | +0.162R | 53.0% | 126 | 20.6% | +0.234R | 55.4% | 107 | 30.8% | -0.198 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 25 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.090R | 51.4% | 810 | 19.5% | +0.175R | 53.9% | 539 | 23.9% | -0.133 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.077R | 50.7% | 810 | 27.6% | +0.099R | 52.2% | 539 | 33.6% | -0.088 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [3.0, 7.0) | +0.144R | 54.4% | 71 | 19.7% | +0.251R | 56.9% | 78 | 25.6% | -0.198 | ℹ small N: IS=71 / OOS=78 — статистика на грани порога N≥50 per bucket |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [1.5, 3.0) | +0.063R | 51.3% | 1576 | 20.6% | +0.124R | 53.4% | 1338 | 24.6% | -0.093 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [1.5, 3.0) | +0.072R | 51.6% | 1576 | 30.0% | +0.117R | 53.1% | 1338 | 35.3% | -0.094 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | [1.5, 3.0) | +0.131R | 52.8% | 1576 | 39.4% | +0.124R | 52.8% | 1338 | 45.8% | -0.128 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.077R | 51.8% | 3368 | 15.1% | +0.093R | 52.1% | 2436 | 19.1% | -0.085 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.105R | 52.3% | 3368 | 24.4% | +0.080R | 51.3% | 2436 | 28.5% | -0.092 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.3% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [7.0, ∞) | +0.242R | 53.3% | 170 | 28.2% | +0.203R | 54.7% | 230 | 30.9% | -0.223 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | [7.0, ∞) | +0.219R | 52.9% | 170 | 40.0% | +0.164R | 53.0% | 230 | 42.6% | -0.192 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 20 bars | [3.0, 7.0) | +0.149R | 53.6% | 817 | 27.7% | +0.115R | 54.4% | 753 | 29.8% | -0.132 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 20 bars | [3.0, 7.0) | +0.144R | 52.9% | 817 | 39.2% | +0.269R | 59.1% | 753 | 40.5% | -0.206 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | [7.0, ∞) | +0.423R | 62.1% | 190 | 34.7% | +0.238R | 57.0% | 211 | 42.6% | -0.330 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.093R | 52.1% | 2673 | 18.3% | +0.055R | 51.5% | 1959 | 22.9% | -0.074 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.055R близко к порогу +0.05R; ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.5% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | [3.0, 7.0) | +0.075R | 52.0% | 498 | 19.7% | +0.087R | 51.6% | 587 | 25.0% | -0.081 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.6% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 20 bars | [3.0, 7.0) | +0.135R | 52.3% | 606 | 34.6% | +0.172R | 55.5% | 519 | 33.7% | -0.153 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 20 bars | [3.0, 7.0) | +0.134R | 51.8% | 606 | 46.2% | +0.183R | 56.6% | 519 | 46.2% | -0.158 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.086R | 51.2% | 2796 | 23.4% | +0.083R | 51.7% | 1881 | 28.3% | -0.084 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.7% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.100R | 51.2% | 2796 | 31.9% | +0.090R | 51.4% | 1881 | 37.5% | -0.095 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.4% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.108R | 51.2% | 2796 | 40.8% | +0.099R | 51.2% | 1881 | 46.4% | -0.103 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.2% — близко к 50% (sym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | [3.0, 7.0) | +0.195R | 53.5% | 534 | 30.7% | +0.134R | 54.2% | 517 | 39.6% | -0.164 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 20 bars | [7.0, ∞) | +0.066R | 50.8% | 412 | 27.9% | +0.130R | 53.1% | 383 | 32.1% | -0.098 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | [0.0, 1.5) | +0.107R | 52.2% | 2919 | 27.0% | +0.076R | 51.7% | 1662 | 31.4% | -0.091 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.7% — близко к 50% (sym) |