2025-01-01 → 2025-09-30 (train, 9 мес),
OOS = 2025-10-01 → 2026-04-07 (test, 6+ мес) — forward-looking split.TP=SL ≥ 2.5:2.5; асимметрия — TP ≥ 2.5.WR ≥ 50% (психологический минимум); асимметрия — WR ≥ 1/(1+ratio) + 10pp (статистический edge над breakeven).min(IS,OOS)/max(IS,OOS) ≥ 0.5 — edge не должен схлопываться между периодами.strength ≥ 0.0).contra.
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 25 bars | +0.601R | 66.7% | 41 | 48.8% | +0.545R | 60.0% | 59 | 49.1% | -0.573 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | +0.237R | 53.9% | 46 | 43.5% | +0.420R | 54.8% | 45 | 31.1% | -0.329 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | +0.407R | 55.6% | 55 | 34.5% | +0.230R | 56.6% | 80 | 33.8% | -0.318 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | +0.139R | 53.5% | 2782 | 34.0% | +0.146R | 52.7% | 2118 | 35.5% | -0.143 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | +0.153R | 52.7% | 2782 | 46.2% | +0.189R | 53.4% | 2118 | 46.1% | -0.171 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | +0.109R | 52.8% | 2295 | 36.4% | +0.197R | 54.4% | 1975 | 34.3% | -0.153 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | +0.121R | 52.8% | 2295 | 39.8% | +0.179R | 52.7% | 1975 | 39.9% | -0.150 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | +0.135R | 52.0% | 2295 | 49.6% | +0.175R | 51.5% | 1975 | 49.6% | -0.155 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | +0.163R | 53.5% | 1920 | 11.5% | +0.124R | 52.8% | 1606 | 12.0% | -0.144 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | +0.158R | 52.7% | 1920 | 23.0% | +0.114R | 52.4% | 1606 | 24.5% | -0.136 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | +0.111R | 52.4% | 3589 | 25.9% | +0.175R | 54.0% | 3010 | 29.7% | -0.143 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | +0.138R | 52.5% | 3589 | 37.2% | +0.175R | 53.2% | 3010 | 41.1% | -0.157 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | +0.118R | 51.6% | 3589 | 47.4% | +0.179R | 53.0% | 3010 | 49.8% | -0.149 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | +0.276R | 53.9% | 102 | 49.0% | +0.551R | 62.2% | 87 | 48.3% | -0.414 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | +0.310R | 53.9% | 102 | 49.0% | +0.414R | 56.8% | 87 | 49.4% | -0.362 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.50R | 25 bars | +0.469R | 47.8% | 102 | 9.8% | +0.471R | 49.4% | 87 | 6.9% | -0.369 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | +0.165R | 52.8% | 94 | 43.6% | +0.256R | 52.5% | 72 | 44.4% | -0.210 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | +0.256R | 54.5% | 67 | 34.3% | +0.505R | 60.4% | 77 | 31.2% | -0.380 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | +0.255R | 51.4% | 67 | 44.8% | +0.326R | 53.5% | 77 | 44.2% | -0.290 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | +0.112R | 55.4% | 67 | 16.4% | +0.079R | 52.5% | 77 | 20.8% | -0.096 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 25 bars | +0.359R | 54.8% | 98 | 25.5% | +0.547R | 58.0% | 74 | 32.4% | -0.453 | |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 25 bars | +0.362R | 54.5% | 98 | 32.6% | +0.586R | 58.7% | 74 | 37.8% | -0.474 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 10 bars | +0.461R | 35.4% | 70 | 7.1% | +0.341R | 33.3% | 55 | 7.3% | -0.017 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | +0.598R | 66.0% | 63 | 25.4% | +0.426R | 57.6% | 75 | 21.3% | -0.512 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | +0.758R | 67.5% | 63 | 36.5% | +0.460R | 56.9% | 75 | 32.0% | -0.609 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | +0.384R | 58.5% | 55 | 3.6% | +0.278R | 56.1% | 65 | 12.3% | -0.331 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | +0.386R | 57.1% | 55 | 36.4% | +0.345R | 54.0% | 65 | 43.1% | -0.365 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | +0.064R | 51.4% | 278 | 48.2% | +0.059R | 52.2% | 292 | 46.2% | -0.062 | ⚠ fragile: E[R] на грани порога +0.05R |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | +0.239R | 55.9% | 303 | 38.6% | +0.141R | 53.4% | 299 | 36.1% | -0.190 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | +0.239R | 56.8% | 303 | 41.9% | +0.128R | 52.1% | 299 | 43.5% | -0.184 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | ||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 20 bars | +0.050R | 50.4% | 296 | 23.0% | +0.052R | 51.6% | 342 | 26.3% | -0.051 | ⚠ fragile: E[R] ровно на пороге +0.05R |