2025-01-01 → 2025-09-30 (train, 9 мес),
OOS = 2025-10-01 → 2026-04-07 (test, 6+ мес) — forward-looking split.TP=SL ≥ 2.5:2.5; асимметрия — TP ≥ 2.5.WR ≥ 50% (психологический минимум); асимметрия — WR ≥ 1/(1+ratio) + 10pp (статистический edge над breakeven).min(IS,OOS)/max(IS,OOS) ≥ 0.5 — edge не должен схлопываться между периодами.[0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0] — минимальный порог силы триггера. Для каждой ячейки (direction × variant_type × TP × SL) оптимизируется лучший (window, strength) по IS E[R].contra.
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.601R | 66.7% | 41 | 48.8% | +0.545R | 60.0% | 59 | 49.1% | -0.573 | ℹ small N: IS=41 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.239R | 55.0% | 31 | 35.5% | +0.366R | 57.1% | 35 | 40.0% | -0.303 | ℹ small N: IS=31 / OOS=35 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.325R | 58.3% | 41 | 41.5% | +0.460R | 55.2% | 40 | 27.5% | -0.393 | ℹ small N: IS=41 / OOS=40 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.328R | 55.6% | 31 | 12.9% | +0.217R | 53.6% | 33 | 15.2% | -0.273 | ℹ small N: IS=31 / OOS=33 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.407R | 55.6% | 55 | 34.5% | +0.230R | 56.6% | 80 | 33.8% | -0.318 | |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.5 | +0.909R | 60.0% | 39 | 35.9% | +0.469R | 61.8% | 56 | 39.3% | -0.689 | ℹ small N: IS=39 / OOS=56 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 3.0 | +0.789R | 51.4% | 36 | 2.8% | +0.481R | 42.3% | 52 | 0.0% | -0.105 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=52 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.337R | 54.5% | 73 | 24.7% | +0.429R | 62.1% | 44 | 34.1% | -0.383 | ℹ small N: IS=73 / OOS=44 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.373R | 52.9% | 73 | 30.1% | +0.439R | 59.3% | 44 | 38.6% | -0.406 | ℹ small N: IS=73 / OOS=44 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.531R | 33.8% | 73 | 2.7% | +0.318R | 27.3% | 44 | 0.0% | +0.242 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 27.3% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.459R | 36.6% | 73 | 2.7% | +0.358R | 34.1% | 44 | 0.0% | +0.110 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 34.1% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.684R | 32.9% | 73 | 4.1% | +0.375R | 25.0% | 44 | 0.0% | +0.246 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 25.0% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.75R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.612R | 34.8% | 73 | 5.5% | +0.443R | 31.8% | 44 | 0.0% | +0.087 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 31.8% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=0.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.607R | 26.1% | 73 | 5.5% | +0.409R | 22.7% | 44 | 0.0% | +0.301 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 22.7% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.109R | 51.3% | 244 | 19.3% | +0.112R | 51.2% | 243 | 15.6% | -0.111 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.2% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.121R | 50.0% | 244 | 30.3% | +0.065R | 50.0% | 243 | 24.3% | -0.093 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.065R близко к порогу +0.05R |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.716R | 40.0% | 36 | 2.8% | +0.720R | 40.7% | 59 | 0.0% | +0.411 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.660R | 42.9% | 36 | 2.8% | +0.572R | 40.7% | 59 | 0.0% | +0.296 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.766R | 50.0% | 36 | 5.6% | +0.424R | 40.7% | 59 | 0.0% | +0.172 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.655R | 31.0% | 36 | 19.4% | +0.776R | 41.7% | 59 | 18.6% | +0.261 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.75R | 10 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.621R | 34.5% | 36 | 19.4% | +0.721R | 43.8% | 59 | 18.6% | +0.151 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=1.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.736R | 42.3% | 36 | 27.8% | +0.606R | 43.8% | 59 | 18.6% | +0.028 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=1.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.652R | 46.1% | 36 | 27.8% | +0.592R | 50.0% | 59 | 22.0% | -0.123 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=0.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.722R | 30.3% | 36 | 8.3% | +0.788R | 32.2% | 59 | 0.0% | +0.502 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=1.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.796R | 36.0% | 36 | 30.6% | +0.557R | 37.2% | 59 | 13.6% | +0.131 | ℹ small N: IS=36 / OOS=59 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.139R | 53.5% | 2782 | 34.0% | +0.146R | 52.7% | 2118 | 35.5% | -0.143 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.153R | 52.7% | 2782 | 46.2% | +0.189R | 53.4% | 2118 | 46.1% | -0.171 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.468R | 31.9% | 75 | 4.0% | +0.436R | 30.6% | 40 | 10.0% | +0.298 | ℹ small N: IS=75 / OOS=40 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=0.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.444R | 22.5% | 75 | 5.3% | +0.534R | 22.9% | 40 | 12.5% | +0.274 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 22.9% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.296R | 55.6% | 75 | 28.0% | +0.233R | 58.3% | 40 | 40.0% | -0.265 | ℹ small N: IS=75 / OOS=40 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.217R | 54.9% | 203 | 24.6% | +0.182R | 52.7% | 144 | 22.2% | -0.200 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.204R | 54.4% | 1053 | 34.8% | +0.197R | 52.1% | 845 | 37.3% | -0.201 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.207R | 52.9% | 1053 | 23.3% | +0.155R | 52.1% | 845 | 25.2% | -0.181 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.565R | 35.5% | 62 | 0.0% | +0.529R | 34.3% | 35 | 0.0% | +0.216 | ℹ small N: IS=62 / OOS=35 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.508R | 38.7% | 62 | 0.0% | +0.457R | 37.1% | 35 | 0.0% | +0.187 | ℹ small N: IS=62 / OOS=35 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.00R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.581R | 45.2% | 62 | 0.0% | +0.400R | 40.0% | 35 | 0.0% | +0.081 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 40.0% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.494R | 27.9% | 62 | 1.6% | +0.500R | 28.6% | 35 | 0.0% | +0.229 | ℹ small N: IS=62 / OOS=35 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.607R | 65.8% | 56 | 26.8% | +0.562R | 62.5% | 49 | 18.4% | -0.585 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.489R | 57.1% | 56 | 37.5% | +0.555R | 58.3% | 49 | 26.5% | -0.522 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.518R | 55.6% | 56 | 35.7% | +0.307R | 52.8% | 49 | 26.5% | -0.413 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.232R | 52.3% | 967 | 36.3% | +0.375R | 56.1% | 774 | 37.0% | -0.304 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.807R | 43.6% | 56 | 1.8% | +0.541R | 34.7% | 49 | 0.0% | +0.193 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.814R | 49.1% | 56 | 5.4% | +0.525R | 39.6% | 49 | 2.0% | +0.012 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.00R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.756R | 50.9% | 56 | 5.4% | +0.491R | 42.5% | 49 | 4.1% | -0.147 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.50R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.564R | 52.9% | 56 | 8.9% | +0.479R | 48.9% | 49 | 8.2% | -0.154 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 48.9% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.846R | 37.7% | 56 | 5.4% | +0.500R | 28.6% | 49 | 0.0% | +0.237 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=1.00R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.840R | 44.9% | 56 | 12.5% | +0.478R | 35.6% | 49 | 8.2% | -0.109 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 35.6% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.879R | 30.4% | 56 | 17.9% | +0.707R | 28.6% | 49 | 14.3% | +0.170 | ℹ small N: IS=56 / OOS=49 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.894R | 25.0% | 56 | 21.4% | +0.761R | 23.1% | 49 | 20.4% | +0.250 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 23.1% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.161R | 54.5% | 81 | 18.5% | +0.147R | 55.0% | 46 | 13.0% | -0.154 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.226R | 55.4% | 81 | 30.9% | +0.193R | 55.9% | 46 | 26.1% | -0.209 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.157R | 53.9% | 81 | 35.8% | +0.124R | 53.3% | 46 | 34.8% | -0.140 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.215R | 54.2% | 81 | 40.7% | +0.135R | 53.6% | 46 | 39.1% | -0.175 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.694R | 40.3% | 81 | 4.9% | +0.609R | 37.0% | 46 | 0.0% | +0.280 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.573R | 41.3% | 81 | 7.4% | +0.522R | 39.1% | 46 | 0.0% | +0.158 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.439R | 41.9% | 81 | 8.6% | +0.518R | 44.2% | 46 | 6.5% | +0.112 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.660R | 34.7% | 81 | 11.1% | +0.592R | 29.6% | 46 | 4.3% | +0.241 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.75R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.540R | 35.7% | 81 | 13.6% | +0.519R | 32.6% | 46 | 6.5% | +0.149 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=1.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.402R | 35.7% | 81 | 13.6% | +0.501R | 36.6% | 46 | 10.9% | +0.055 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 36.6% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=0.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.733R | 32.4% | 81 | 12.3% | +0.646R | 27.3% | 46 | 4.3% | +0.176 | ℹ small N: IS=81 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=1.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.472R | 33.3% | 81 | 11.1% | +0.497R | 32.6% | 46 | 6.5% | +0.044 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 32.6% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.386R | 57.1% | 246 | 14.6% | +0.211R | 54.8% | 198 | 16.2% | -0.298 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.111R | 54.7% | 131 | 19.1% | +0.083R | 50.9% | 72 | 20.8% | -0.097 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 50.9% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.138R | 52.5% | 3589 | 37.2% | +0.175R | 53.2% | 3010 | 41.1% | -0.157 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.118R | 51.6% | 3589 | 47.4% | +0.179R | 53.0% | 3010 | 49.8% | -0.149 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.603R | 36.9% | 131 | 0.8% | +0.369R | 29.0% | 72 | 4.2% | +0.381 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 20 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.336R | 33.2% | 409 | 2.7% | +0.406R | 35.1% | 287 | 2.8% | +0.053 | |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.534R | 28.9% | 131 | 2.3% | +0.388R | 25.0% | 72 | 5.6% | +0.360 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 25.0% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.372R | 28.1% | 131 | 2.3% | +0.390R | 29.6% | 72 | 1.4% | +0.486 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.461R | 57.8% | 65 | 30.8% | +0.467R | 62.2% | 64 | 29.7% | -0.464 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.412R | 54.0% | 65 | 43.1% | +0.414R | 60.0% | 64 | 45.3% | -0.413 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.310R | 53.9% | 102 | 49.0% | +0.414R | 56.8% | 87 | 49.4% | -0.362 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.542R | 49.0% | 65 | 24.6% | +0.513R | 49.1% | 64 | 14.1% | -0.368 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 49.1% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.165R | 52.8% | 94 | 43.6% | +0.256R | 52.5% | 72 | 44.4% | -0.210 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.277R | 56.2% | 67 | 4.5% | +0.261R | 56.5% | 51 | 9.8% | -0.269 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.256R | 54.5% | 67 | 34.3% | +0.505R | 60.4% | 77 | 31.2% | -0.380 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.255R | 51.4% | 67 | 44.8% | +0.326R | 53.5% | 77 | 44.2% | -0.290 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.112R | 55.4% | 67 | 16.4% | +0.079R | 52.5% | 77 | 20.8% | -0.096 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.066R | 55.9% | 46 | 26.1% | +0.053R | 53.5% | 62 | 30.6% | -0.059 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.053R близко к порогу +0.05R |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.334R | 64.3% | 53 | 47.2% | +0.191R | 50.0% | 48 | 50.0% | -0.262 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 50.0% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.359R | 54.8% | 98 | 25.5% | +0.547R | 58.0% | 74 | 32.4% | -0.453 | |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.362R | 54.5% | 98 | 32.6% | +0.586R | 58.7% | 74 | 37.8% | -0.474 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=0.75R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.633R | 40.9% | 48 | 8.3% | +0.370R | 34.2% | 40 | 5.0% | -0.185 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 34.2% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.540R | 41.9% | 48 | 10.4% | +0.331R | 38.9% | 40 | 10.0% | -0.116 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 38.9% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=0.75R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.619R | 33.3% | 48 | 12.5% | +0.423R | 30.6% | 40 | 10.0% | -0.194 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 30.6% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.598R | 66.0% | 63 | 25.4% | +0.426R | 57.6% | 75 | 21.3% | -0.512 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.758R | 67.5% | 63 | 36.5% | +0.460R | 56.9% | 75 | 32.0% | -0.609 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 20 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.563R | 57.6% | 41 | 19.5% | +0.284R | 54.8% | 46 | 32.6% | -0.424 | ℹ small N: IS=41 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.384R | 58.5% | 55 | 3.6% | +0.278R | 56.1% | 65 | 12.3% | -0.331 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.386R | 57.1% | 55 | 36.4% | +0.345R | 54.0% | 65 | 43.1% | -0.365 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.091R | 50.0% | 53 | 24.5% | +0.177R | 51.4% | 44 | 20.4% | -0.134 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.4% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.170R | 63.0% | 53 | 49.1% | +0.270R | 52.2% | 44 | 47.7% | -0.220 | ℹ small N: IS=53 / OOS=44 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.416R | 58.2% | 60 | 8.3% | +0.440R | 60.9% | 87 | 20.7% | -0.428 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 2.5 | +0.504R | 60.0% | 37 | 46.0% | +0.392R | 61.8% | 63 | 46.0% | -0.448 | ℹ small N: IS=37 / OOS=63 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 20 bars | ≥ 3.0 | +0.467R | 55.0% | 30 | 33.3% | +0.311R | 59.3% | 48 | 43.8% | -0.389 | ℹ small N: IS=30 / OOS=48 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 20 bars | ≥ 2.5 | +0.537R | 57.9% | 37 | 48.6% | +0.512R | 58.3% | 63 | 42.9% | -0.524 | ℹ small N: IS=37 / OOS=63 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.408R | 61.5% | 33 | 21.2% | +0.386R | 61.1% | 46 | 21.7% | -0.397 | ℹ small N: IS=33 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.501R | 62.5% | 33 | 27.3% | +0.633R | 65.6% | 46 | 30.4% | -0.567 | ℹ small N: IS=33 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.0 | +0.455R | 57.1% | 33 | 36.4% | +0.768R | 67.7% | 46 | 32.6% | -0.612 | ℹ small N: IS=33 / OOS=46 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.255R | 54.0% | 99 | 36.4% | +0.290R | 55.3% | 123 | 38.2% | -0.273 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.483R | 61.8% | 101 | 32.7% | +0.325R | 57.6% | 120 | 29.2% | -0.404 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.239R | 56.8% | 303 | 41.9% | +0.128R | 52.1% | 299 | 43.5% | -0.184 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 20 bars | ≥ 0.0 | +0.050R | 50.4% | 296 | 23.0% | +0.067R | 52.0% | 342 | 26.3% | -0.059 | ⚠ fragile: OOS E[R]=+0.067R близко к порогу +0.05R |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.307R | 54.5% | 86 | 36.0% | +0.445R | 57.1% | 99 | 29.3% | -0.376 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.319R | 54.4% | 149 | 39.6% | +0.196R | 53.1% | 175 | 35.4% | -0.257 | |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 0.5 | +0.306R | 53.2% | 149 | 47.0% | +0.233R | 54.4% | 175 | 41.1% | -0.270 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.5 | +0.055R | 51.2% | 46 | 10.9% | +0.107R | 51.1% | 51 | 11.8% | -0.081 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.1% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.160R | 52.3% | 77 | 15.6% | +0.177R | 52.5% | 81 | 27.2% | -0.169 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.150R | 54.0% | 77 | 35.1% | +0.228R | 54.5% | 81 | 32.1% | -0.189 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 1.0 | +0.255R | 55.1% | 128 | 16.4% | +0.152R | 52.2% | 136 | 16.9% | -0.203 | |
| asymmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=1.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 3.0 | +0.445R | 40.5% | 38 | 2.6% | +0.492R | 41.7% | 42 | 14.3% | -0.286 | ℹ small N: IS=38 / OOS=42 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=1.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 2.5 | +0.564R | 38.5% | 43 | 9.3% | +0.471R | 35.4% | 55 | 12.7% | -0.246 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 35.4% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| asymmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=1.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 3.0 | +0.956R | 53.3% | 38 | 21.1% | +0.528R | 44.4% | 42 | 14.3% | -0.353 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 44.4% — близко к breakeven+10pp (asym) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 5.0 | +0.603R | 63.2% | 143 | 12.6% | +0.405R | 60.4% | 234 | 17.9% | -0.504 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 5.0 | +0.559R | 61.1% | 143 | 21.0% | +0.286R | 57.1% | 234 | 27.4% | -0.423 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 10.0 | +0.395R | 57.1% | 32 | 34.4% | +0.410R | 62.5% | 43 | 44.2% | -0.402 | ℹ small N: IS=32 / OOS=43 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 10.0 | +0.441R | 57.1% | 32 | 34.4% | +0.739R | 68.2% | 43 | 48.8% | -0.590 | ℹ small N: IS=32 / OOS=43 — статистика тонкая, требует ревалидации при росте выборки |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 3.0 | +0.182R | 54.9% | 245 | 21.2% | +0.123R | 53.8% | 313 | 28.1% | -0.153 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 15 bars | ≥ 3.0 | +0.205R | 55.3% | 245 | 30.6% | +0.256R | 57.2% | 313 | 38.0% | -0.230 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.5 | +0.195R | 53.4% | 315 | 25.1% | +0.222R | 54.7% | 389 | 26.7% | -0.209 | |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 2.5 | +0.195R | 52.3% | 315 | 31.4% | +0.154R | 52.9% | 389 | 32.4% | -0.174 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 4.0 | +0.245R | 54.7% | 160 | 13.1% | +0.209R | 55.0% | 205 | 12.2% | -0.227 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 10 bars | ≥ 7.0 | +0.856R | 76.5% | 54 | 37.0% | +0.609R | 69.6% | 86 | 46.5% | -0.732 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 4.0 | +0.656R | 65.2% | 130 | 46.9% | +0.478R | 58.7% | 183 | 49.7% | -0.567 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.50R / SL=3.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 4.0 | +0.465R | 58.2% | 130 | 30.0% | +0.272R | 55.4% | 183 | 33.9% | -0.368 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 25 bars | ≥ 4.0 | +0.287R | 55.9% | 133 | 11.3% | +0.442R | 59.7% | 179 | 16.8% | -0.365 | |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 15 bars | ≥ 4.0 | +0.191R | 53.8% | 103 | 22.3% | +0.282R | 55.0% | 150 | 26.0% | -0.236 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 10 bars | ≥ 4.0 | +0.133R | 50.8% | 103 | 35.0% | +0.137R | 50.5% | 150 | 39.3% | -0.135 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 50.6% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |
| Type | Ratio | Window | Strength | IS (train) | OOS (test) | Contra | Notes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | WR | N | Exp% | E[R] | |||||
| symmetric | TP=2.50R / SL=2.50R | 30 bars | ≥ 7.0 | +0.253R | 55.0% | 153 | 8.5% | +0.151R | 54.1% | 183 | 14.2% | -0.202 | |
| symmetric | TP=3.00R / SL=3.00R | 25 bars | ≥ 2.5 | +0.098R | 50.8% | 529 | 28.9% | +0.091R | 51.6% | 569 | 26.7% | -0.095 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.6% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |
| symmetric | TP=4.00R / SL=4.00R | 30 bars | ≥ 7.0 | +0.223R | 51.5% | 153 | 36.6% | +0.167R | 51.2% | 183 | 33.9% | -0.195 | ⚠ fragile: OOS WR 51.2% — близко к 50% (sym breakeven) |